Cross-Impact Balance Analysis Lab

at the Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies (ZIRIUS)

Scenarios have evolved as an indispensable tool for future planning in politics, business, administration, and beyond. Between intuition-based scenario methods and mathematical modeling, the field of semi-formalized scenario methods has been established. These methods are particularly suitable for scenario topics for which only qualitative insights into the systemic interrelationships exist, but which are also too complex for mental analysis.

At the CIB-Lab we focus on the Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, which is especially designed for this type of scenarios. The CIB was developed at ZIRIUS and is now used worldwide for an algorithm-based development of qualitative and semi-quantitative scenarios. The method is thematically generic. Typical fields of application are energy, climate and sustainability research.

CIB is based on the qualitative and/or semi-quantitative elicitation of the interdependencies of a complex system using expert or stakeholder assessments and/or literature analysis. The interdependencies thus compiled define a qualitative impact network that can be evaluated according to formal consistency criteria (the CIB consistency principle), leading to "consistent scenarios" of system behavior. These can be used, for example, for planning, strategy development or intervention analysis.

The aim of the CIB-Lab is to further develop the method and enhance its potential and applicability to new fields. At the CIB-Lab, we:

  • implement CIB application projects
  • deal with methodological questions concerning CIB analysis, including the development and testing of method extensions
  • maintain and further develop the CIB software ScenarioWizard
  • maintain the method homepage, which provides aforementioned software, method information and a bibliography
  • collect and methodologically analyse published CIB applications to foster learning effects and practical recommendations for the method application
  • support the international network of research institutions that apply or methodically research CIB
  • advise users, supervise guest researchers, give lectures and conduct training measures.

The CIB-Lab cooperates closely with the research area "Method Development" at ZIRIUS.

Application and methodological research projects

Current Projects

In the joint project Genese, a systematic characterization of different aspects of societal change, the recording of the effects of change on electricity demand, a detailed modeling of the change in demand profiles and the evaluation of these profiles via the integration into energy system models with low temporal resolution as well as electricity market models with high temporal resolution is carried out. The CIB-Lab analyzes aspects of societal change and creates consistent, cross-sectoral driver constellations for demand change with the CIB, which act as a starting point as well as a link between the models.

Project duration: 2022  - 2025                                                              

Funding: BMWK

Partner: IER, DLR, IEK-STE

Contact: Sigrid Prehofer, Matthias Leger, Sandra Wassermann

To the project

At the example of the Northern Black Forest, the joint project KoOpRegioN analyses regional options of cooperation for sustainable land use. To this end, the CIB-Lab carries out a CIB-supported policy-design process to develop “policy mixes for commercial areas of the future”. Goal conflicts are explicitly addressed and policy mixes are developed that reach multiple goals at the same time: 1) better cooperation between center and surrounding communities; 2) reduction of land use; 3) higher regional economic performance. Results will contribute to a scenario exercise and to developing a pilot project.

Project duration: 2020  - 2023                                                               

Funding: BMBF               

Partner: Regionalverband Nordschwarzwald (coordination), EIFER (scientific coordination), ITAS, MWO               

Contact: Hannah Kosow, Sandra Wassermann

To the project

In the joint project, an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary concept for the resilient design of the digital energy transition is to be developed with scientific and practical experts, as well as a resilience monitoring, the core of which is a stress test instrument. The main focus of the project is the development of this system-analytical instrument and the concept of its social integration.

Project duration: 2020 - 2023

Funding: BMWK

Partners: IQIB, DLR, OFFIS

Contact: Sigrid Prehofer, Dr. Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

To the project

The joint project SyKonaS develops a fundamental, conceptual and methodological approach for the analysis of actor conflicts in energy transition pathways. To this end, the CIB Lab analysis the interactions between conflicts on different levels of the transformation process on the one hand, and the institutional, technical, economic and legal framework conditions on the other hand (conflict lines). In order to support the knowledge gain with practical knowledge, stakeholders are involved who contribute to the identification of conflicts, the assessment of systemic interactions and the development of solutions.

Project duration: 2021 - 2024

Funding: BMWi

Partners: ZSW, Stiftung Umweltenergierecht, DIALOGIK gGmbH (coordination ZIRIUS)

Contact: Christian D. León, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

To the project

As a consequence of climate change, conflicts over groundwater and surface water are expected to increase in Germany in the future. As part of the Ladenburger Kolleg of the Daimler and Benz Foundation, a joint project coordinated by ZIRIUS is researching these possible conflicts. In the CIB-Lab, participatory modeling and simulation games are used to investigate future context factors and actor strategies in their interactions. We use CIB in the form of participatory modeling to enable interested and potentially affected stakeholders to experience future water conflicts as well as complex consequences of policies. To this end, we are co-designing a joint web application and conducting simulation games with CIB in three case studies.

Project duration: 2022 - 2025                                                                

Funding: Daimler und Benz Stiftung            

Partners: Forschungszentrum Jülich, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, ZIRIUS (coordination)            

Contact: Hannah Kosow, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Janina Moschner

To the Project

Multi-stage scenario creation using cross-impact-balance analysis (CIB) and REMix, taking into account path changes and disruptions

To the Project

Completed Projects

In this dissertation project, two explorative case studies from the field of environmental scenarios were used to investigate (whether and) how CIB can be combined with numerical modeling and simulation in order to support inter- and transdisciplinary research teams in creating qualitative and quantitative or integrated explorative socio-environmental scenarios. In particular, ideal-typical forms of combination were identified, effects of the use of CIB within such combinations on traceability and consistency, and factors influencing these effects of CIB.

Project duration: 2009-2015                                   

Funding: Cluster of Excellence SimTech (DFG)

Partner: -                                                                      

Contact: Hannah Kosow

Das Projekt befasst sich mit den Einflüssen auf die Wassernachfrage und -versorgung in den peruanischen Anden. Am CIB-Lab werden dazu gemeinsam mit lokalen Akteuren Szenarien entwickelt, die Aufschluss über die Versorgungsrisiken für die betroffenen ökonomischen Sektoren und sozialen Gruppen sowie Orientierung für die hydrologische Modellrechnungen des Projekts geben sollen.

Laufzeit: 2016  - 2019                                                               

Förderung: DFG                                            

Partner: Universität Zürich, IWS Univ. Stuttgart               

Ansprechpartner: Christian León

To the Project

Various activities for the use of renewable energies, energy saving and emission reduction of municipalities, regions, but also federal states can be bundled under the keyword "energy self-sufficiency". Against this background, an interdisciplinary research team of engineers and natural scientists as well as economists and social scientists prepared, carried out and interpreted simulations that determine the infrastructure required for a regional optimum. The task of the CIB-Lab was to create context scenarios that analyzed the framework conditions of self-sufficiency efforts and served as a starting point for the model simulations.

Project duration: 2014 – 2016                                               

Funding: BWPlus            

Partner: IER, DLR, IFk, LBP                                                    

Contact:  Wolfgang Hauser

Zum Projekt

As part of the AutGrid project, Fraunhofer ISE and ZIRIUS analyzed autarky developments in the energy regions. To this end, the social science part of the project used expert interviews and workshops to investigate which factors are driving energy self-sufficiency efforts and how they interact. On this basis, consistent context scenarios were calculated, which show where the regions are located, to what extent they are self-sufficient and how this could develop until 2050. For the identified scenarios, an optimization model with high temporal and spatial resolution was used to show the effects on the German energy system. The study focused on a comparison of the scenarios with regard to system costs, required network expansion, network capacity utilization and the technology portfolio.

Project duration: 2015 – 2018                                                

Funding: BMBF

Partner: Fraunhofer ISE                                                          

Contact: Wolfgang Hauser

Zum Projekt

The BMBF-funded project "ENavi " investigated the interactions between technology development, forms of organization, regulation and behavior. It thus expands the focus and views energy system transformation as a profound and systemic process of technical and social change. At the CIB-Lab, leitmotifs for energy system transformation are analyzed and compatible "technospheres" constructed, and the effects of social change on electrical load profiles are researched.  
Project duration: 2016 - 2019                                             

Funding: BMBF               

Partner: ca. 80 Partner, Coordination: IASS                       

Contact: Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang Hauser, Sigrid Prehofer and Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele

Die Helmholtz Graduiertenschule "Energieszenarien" bietet ein strukturiertes Ausbildungsprogramm für internationale Doktoranden im Bereich Energieszenarien. Im CIB-Lab sind zwei von der ESS getragene Promotionsprojekte angesiedelt. Sie entwickeln Verfahren für die Integration gesellschaftlicher Prozesse in die Energiesystemmodellierung. Weiterhin trägt das Lab mit dem Thema CIB-gestützte Kontextszenarien zum Ausbildungsprogamm der Graduiertenschule bei.
Laufzeit: 2011 - 2020                                                                

Förderung: Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft   

Partner: ITAS (Koordination), DLR, IER, ISI, IIP, IfP            

Ansprechpartner: Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Sigrid Prehofer, Arash Shojachaikar

The interdisciplinary research alliance Energy-Trans, supported by the Helmholtz Association, investigated the socio-technical aspects of the energy system transformation. The CIB-Lab coordinated the foresight activities of Energy-Trans, developed together with the partners the concept of "Context Scenarios" that relate possible social futures to possible energy futures and applied the concept in the Alliance's "Integrated Scenario Building" project in cooperation with DLR.

Project duration: 2011 - 2016                                                

Funding: Helmholtz-Association              

Partner: 8 partners, coordination: ITAS                              

Contact: Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang Hauser, Sigrid Prehofer

This project dealt with the uncertainty and interdependence of framework assumptions in environmental model calculations. Model framework assumptions are often used in modeling practice without a systematic analysis of their mutual influence relationships and thus affect the validity of the model results. In this project, commissioned by the German Federal Environment Agency, it was demonstrated how the CIB procedure can be used to develop systematically constructed and internally consistent framework data sets for environmental models.

Project duration: 2010-2011                     

Funding: UBA   

Partner: -                                                       

Contact:   Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Sandra Wassermann, Hannah Kosow

The aim of the project was to investigate perception and evaluation patterns of (qualitative) energy scenarios by potential scenario users in politics, economy and society. The scenario community often uses the concept of 'plausibility' as a means to limit the space of scenario development and evaluation. Although it presents a central term in scenario research, it remains conceptually or empirically underexplored. An interdisciplinary theory exploration of the concept was conducted. This informed a semi-experimental study that analyzed how plausibility assessments are formed for different scenario formats. The Intuitive Logics (IL) method and the Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB) were used as scenario formats.

Project duration: 2014 - 2017                                 

Funding: Cluster of Excellence SimTech (DFG)              

Partner: -                                                                      

Contact: Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele

Zum Projekt

In this project, it was examined on the basis of which influencing factors and with which effects large companies select locations for their R&D developments on the one hand and their diffusion priorities on the other. The investigation was carried out using the technology development of coal-fired power plants as an example, comparing Germany and China. CIB was used for a system analysis of the innovation environment and the activities of multinational companies.
Project duration: 2007 - 2009                                                

Funding: VW-Foundation            

Partner: FZ-Jülich, ZEW                                                           

Contact: Sandra Wassermann

The LiWa project was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the programme "Research for the sustainable development of tomorrow's megacities - energy and climate efficient structures in urban growth centres". The objective of the LiWa project was to develop concepts and procedures for the sustainable planning and management of water supply and sanitation in Lima, the capital of Peru. Among other things, scenarios for the future water supply were created on the basis of hydrological simulations together with German and Peruvian partners and with the help of the CIB method. Subsequently, effective, socially acceptable measures were developed in participatory forums, which particularly take into account the effects of climate change and the promotion of energy-efficient structures.

Project duration: 2008-2013 (main project phase)          

Funding: BMBF

Partner: IFAK (coordination),                                                 

Contact: Christian León, Hannah Kosow ZIRIUS (coordination Peru), IWS,UFZ,

Zum Projekt

The project investigated the social and societal background of juvenile obesity in two sub-projects: from the perspective of the affected persons in the form of interviews with affected persons and their relatives and from the perspective of experts in the form of a CIB analysis. For this project, the CIB-Lab conducted interdisciplinary expert workshops, developed a qualitative risk model and evaluated it with the CIB method in order to identify environment-specific starting points for obesity prevention.
Project duration: 2009 - 2012                                  

Funding: BMBF

Partner: Uni. Hannover, Katalyse-Institut             

Contact: Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

In this project, funded by the Baden-Württemberg government, a conceptual alternative to the conventional three-pillar model of sustainability was developed. Part of this was a CIB analysis that examined the systemic implications of the interactions between the different fields of action of sustainability. For this purpose, the cross-impacts between 19 sustainability criteria were collected in an expert survey. The resulting impact network was evaluated using the CIB method. A ranking of the systemic impact for the criteria was established and the key factors dominating the systemic impact were identified.
Project duration: 2005 - 2006                  

Funding: Ministry for Science Baden-Württemberg

Partner: -                                                       

Contact: Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

In this case study, the possibilities of integrating the effects of innovation processes into energy-economic modeling were examined. The contribution of the CIB method consisted in an analysis of the political and economic environment structures that could favor or inhibit innovation processes. For this purpose, four innovation and four energy experts developed a qualitative model of the interdependencies between political measures, entrepreneurial structures and technological developments in a series of workshops. The model was evaluated using the CIB method, transferred to innovation scenarios. On this base, the systemic effectiveness of different policy patterns was assessed.

Project duration: 2004-2005                                    

Funding: BMWi

Partner: Forum für Energiesystemanalyse           

Contact:  Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

The topic of the research project was the development of measures to secure the drug supply chain. The proposed security measures were intended to prevent criminal or accidental acts or accidents. Threats to the drug supply chain can arise from counterfeit drugs, attacks through the smuggling of dangerous drugs, accidents in the packaging process or in the cold chain, etc. ZIRIUS developed CIB-supported threat scenarios on the basis of which security measures were developed.

Project duration: 2010 - 2014                                                

Funding: BMBF

Partner: IPRI                                                                               

Contact: Michael Löscher

In the project City with Energy Efficiency - SEE Stuttgart, the CIB was used to develop the widest possible range of consistent scenarios for a climate-neutral city of Stuttgart in 2050. These scenarios served as a basis for the City of Stuttgart to formulate a roadmap. The ZIRIUS did not play a leading role in the scenario development, but supported the project partners methodically, e.g. by conducting a CIB training and also in the evaluation using the CIB software SzenarioWizard. ZIRIUS was also involved in the scenario development, e.g. in the creation of the cross-impact matrix and in the interpretation of the results.

Project duration: 2011- 2017                                                 

Funding: BMBF

Partner: 6 partners, coordination: Stadt Stuttgart           

Contact: Sandra Wassermann

Climate change is exacerbating water shortage, especially in regions that are already struggling with water scarcity. At the same time, the demand for clean drinking water, irrigation water for agriculture and industrial water is increasing all over the world. Using the example of the Río Lurín water catchment area in the region of Lima, Peru, experts from various disciplines are collaborating in the joint project TRUST to develop planning tools as well as water and wastewater disposal concepts primarily for drinking water supply. ZIRIUS coordinates the project with the overall objective of contributing to the achievement of the sustainable development goals. 

Project duration: 2017-2021

Funding: Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Contact: Christian Leon

To the Project


Weimer-Jehle W. (2006): Cross-Impact Balances: A System-Theoretical Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73:4, 334-361.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2023): Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) for Scenario Analysis - Fundamentals and Implementation. Springer Berlin, Heidelberg, New-York. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-27230-1 .

Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Cross-Impact Balances - Applying pair interaction systems and multi-value Kauffman nets to multidisciplinary systems analysis. Physica A, 387:14, 3689-3700.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Properties of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis. arXiv:0912.5352v1.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Szenarienentwicklung mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse. In: Gausemeier J. (Hrsg.): Vorausschau und Technologieplanung. HNI-Verlagsschriftenreihe Vol. 265, Paderborn, 435-454.

Kosow, H. (2011): Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), Seville (Spain), 12.-13.05. 2011.

Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2011): Gesellschaftliche Kontextszenarien als Ausgangspunkt für modellgestützte Energieszenarien. In: Dieckhoff C. et al. (Hrsg.): Energieszenarien - Konstruktion, Bewertung und Wirkung. KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe.

Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S. (2013): Kontextszenarien - Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien. TATuP 22(2), 27–36.

Kosow H. (2015): New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios. Eur J Futures Res 3:16, DOI 10.1007/s40309-015-0077-6.

Kosow H., León C. (2015): Die Szenariotechnik als Methode der Experten- und Stakeholdereinbindung. In: Niederberger M, Wassermann S. (Eds.): Methoden der Experten- und Stakeholdereinbindung in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung. Springer VS, 217-242 

Kosow H. (2016): The best of both worlds? An exploratory study on forms and effects of new qualitative-quantitative scenario methodologies. Dissertation, Universität Stuttgart.

Shojachaikar A. (2016): Qualitative but systematic envisioning of socio-technical transitions: Using cross-impact balance method to construct future scenarios of transitions. International Sustainability Transitions Conference 6-9 September 2016, Wuppertal.

Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2017): Konsistenz von gesellschaftlichen Rahmenannahmen - Erfahrungen mit CIB. In: Biemann K., Distelkamp M., Dittrich M., Dünnebeil F., Greiner B., Hirschnitz-Garbers M., Koca D., Kosow H., Lorenz U., Mellwig P., Neumann K., Meyer M., Schoer K., Sverdrup H., von Oehsen A., Weimer-Jehle W.: Sicherung der Konsistenz und Harmonisierung von Annahmen bei der kombinierten Modellierung von Ressourceninanspruchnahme und Treibhausgasemissionen. Umweltbundesamt Dokumentationen 04/2017, Dessau, 22-28.

Scheele R., Kosow H., Prehofer S. (2017): Kontextszenarien als Ergänzung modellgestützter Szenarioanalysen – Grundlagen und aktuelle Fragestellungen. In: Tilebein, M. et al. (Hrsg.) Digitale Welten: Neue Ansätze in der Wirtschafts- und Sozialkybernetik. Wirtschaftskybernetik und Systemanalyse Band 30, Berlin: Duncker & Humblot, 107-121.

Scheele R., Kearney N.M., Kurniawan J.H., Schweizer V.J. (2018): What Scenarios Are You Missing? Poststructuralism for Deconstructing and Reconstructing Organizational Futures. In: Krämer H., Wenzel M.: How Organizations Manage the Future - Theoretical Perspectives and Empirical Insights. Springer International Publishing, Kapitel 8. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-74506-0_8

Scheele R. (2019): Applause for Scenarios!? An Explorative Study of ‘Plausibility’ as Assessment Criterion in Scenario Planning. Dissertation, Universität Stuttgart.

Schmidt-Scheele R. (2020): The Plausibility of Future Scenarios. Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning. Transcript Independent Academic Publishing, Bielefeld.

Prehofer S., Kosow H., Naegler T., Pregger T., Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2021): Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models. Knowledge integration in different methodological designs. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 11:25. DOI: 10.1186/s13705-021-00298-1 .

Kosow H., Weimer-Jehle W., León C.D., Minn F. (2022): Designing synergetic and sustainable policy mixes - a methodology to address conflictive environmental issues. Environmental Science & Policy 130, S. 36–46. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.01.007 .

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Mehr als die Summe der einzelnen Teile - Konsistente Szenarien des Wärmekonsums als Reflexionsrahmen für Politik und Wissenschaft. GAIA 21/4, 290–299.

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Möglichkeitsräume des zukünftigen Konsums von Wärme. In: Gallego Carrera D., Renn O., Wassermann S., Weimer-Jehle W. (Hrsg.): Nachhaltige Nutzung von Wärmeenergie (Sustainable Heat Consumption). Springer-Vieweg, Heidelberg, Wiesbaden.

Weimer-Jehle, W. (2015): Cross-Impact Analyse, in: Niederberger, M./Wassermann, S. (Hrsg.): Methoden der Experten- und Stakeholdereinbindung in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung, Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag: 17-34.

Weimer-Jehle W., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kosow H., Naegler T., Poganietz W., Pregger T., Prehofer S., von Recklinghausen A., Schippl J., Vögele S. (2016): Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios. Energy 111, 956–970. DOI: 10.1016/

Senkpiel C., Shammugam S., Biener W., Saad Hussein N., Kost C., Kreifels N., Hauser W. (2016): Concept of evaluating chances and risks of grid autarky. 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), June 6-9, 2016, Porto (Portugal). DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2016.7521177

Brodecki L., Fahl U., Tomascheck J., Wiesmeth M., Gutekunst F., Siebenlist A., Salah A., Baumann M., Brethauer L., Horn R., Hauser W., Sonnberger M., León C., Pfenning U., O'Sullivan M. (2017): Analyse der Energie-Autarkiepotenziale für Baden-Württemberg mittels Integrierter Energiesystemmodellierung. Forschungsbericht BWPLUS des Landes Baden-Württemberg.

Vögele S., Hansen P., Poganietz W.-R., Prehofer S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2017): Scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach. Energy 120, 937-946. DOI: 10.1016/

Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kopfmüller J., Naegler T., Poganietz W.-R., Pregger T., Rösch C., Scholz Y. (2017): Kontextszenarien - Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien und seine Anwendung in der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. In: Jens Schippl, Armin Grunwald, Ortwin Renn (Hrsg.). Die Energiewende verstehen – orientieren – gestalten. Erkenntnisse aus der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, p. 257-94.

Pregger Thomas, Naegler Tobias, Weimer-Jehle Wolfgang, Prehofer Sigrid, Hauser Wolfgang (2019): Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition - lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building. Climatic Change.

Senkpiel C., Hauser W., Biener W., Längle S., Shammugam S., Garcia K.R., Kost C. (2019): AutGrid - Chancen und Risiken der Netzautarkie in Deutschland. Modellgestützte Analyse und Bewertung der Auswirkungen einer Netzautarkie von Regionen im deutschen Energiesystem. Projektbericht. Fraunhofer ISE, Freiburg.

Schmidt-Scheele Ricarda, Bauknecht Dirk, Poganietz Witold-Roger, Seebach Dominik, Timpe Christof, Weimer-Jehle Wolfgang, Weiss Annika (2019): Leitmotive und Storylines der Energiewende. Wie Stakeholder-Positionen systematisch in Transformationspfade integriert werden können. TATuP 29(3).

Weimer-Jehle Wolfgang, Vögele Stefan, Hauser Wolfgang, Kosow Hannah, Poganietz Witold-Roger, Prehofer Sigrid (2020): Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches. Climatic Change.

Poganietz W.-R., Weimer-Jehle W. (2020): Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’. Climatic Change. DOI:10.1007/s10584-020-02871-7

Senkpiel C., Hauser W. (2020): Systemic Evaluation of the Effects of Regional Self-Supply Targets on the German Electricity System Using Consistent Scenarios and System Optimization. Energies, 13. DOI:10.3390/en13184695

Kopfmüller J., Weimer‐Jehle W., Naegler T., Buchgeister J., Bräutigam K.-R., Stelzer V. (2021): Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition. Energies, 14, 1580. DOI: 10.3390/en14061580 .

Prehofer S., Kosow H., Naegler T., Pregger T., Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2021): Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models. Knowledge integration in different methodological designs. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 11:25. DOI: 10.1186/s13705-021-00298-1 .

Vögele S., Poganietz W.-R., Kleinebrahm M., Weimer-Jehle W., Bernhard J., Kuckshinrichs, W., Weiss A. (2022): Dissemination of PV-Battery Systems in the German Residential Sector Up to 2050: Technological Diffusion from Multidisciplinary Perspectives. Energy, 248, 123477. DOI: 10.1016/ .

François D.E. (2022): Future Perspectives on the Energy-Poverty Nexus in the Rural Areas of Ceará, Brazil. Dissertation. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT). DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000152902 .

Garcia-Teruel A., Scholz Y., Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Cao K.K., Borggrefe F. (2022): Teaching Power-Sector Models Social and Political Awareness. Energies 15, 3275. DOI: 10.3390/en15093275 . 

Weimer-Jehle W., Deuschle J., Rehaag R. (2012): Familial and societal causes of juvenile obesity - a qualitative model on obesity development and prevention in socially disadvantaged children and adolescents. Journal of Public Health, 20(2), 111-124.

Deuschle J., Weimer-Jehle W. (2016): Übergewicht bei Kindern und Jugendlichen - Analyse eines Gesundheitsrisikos. In: Benighaus L., Renn O., Benighaus C. (Hrsg.): Gesundheitsrisiken im gesellschaftlichen Diskurs. Bremen: EHV Academicpress: 66-98.

Hummel E., Weimer-Jehle W., Hoffmann I. (2021): Die Cross-Impact Bilanzanalyse: Grundlagen und Anwendung am Beispiel Ernährungsverhalten. In: Niederberger, Marlen, Finne, Emily (Hrsg.): Forschungsmethoden in der Gesundheitsförderung und Prävention. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-658-31434-7 .

Weimer-Jehle W., Fuchs G. (2007): Generierung von Innovationsszenarien mit der Cross-Impact Methode. In: Innovation und moderne Energietechnik. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster.

Fuchs G., Fahl U., Pyka A., Staber U. Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Generating Innovation Scenarios using the Cross-Impact Methodology. Department of Economics, University of Bremen, Discussion-Papers Series No. 007-2008.

Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Fuchs G. (2010): Erstellung von Energie- und Innovations-Szenarien mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse: Internationalisierung von Innovationsstrategien im Bereich der Kohlekraftwerkstechnologie. 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, TU Graz, 10.-12.02.2010.

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2007): Leitbild Nachhaltigkeit - Eine normativ-funktionale Konzeption und ihre Umsetzung. VS-Verlag, Wiesbaden.

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): A normative-functional concept of sustainability and its indicators. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9:4, 291-317.

Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Kosow H. (2011): Konsistente Rahmendaten für Modellierungen und Szenariobildung im Umweltbundesamt. Gutachten für das Umweltbundesamt (UBA), UBA-Texte 20/2011, Dessau-Roßlau.

Kosow H., Wassermann S., Bartke S., Goede P., Grimski D., Imbert I., Jenssen T., Laukel O., Proske M., Protzer J., Schumacher K.P., Siedentop S., Wagner-Endres S., Wittekind J., Zimmermann K. (2022): Addressing Goal Conflicts - New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management. Land 11, 795. DOI: 10.3390/land11060795 .

Kosow H., León C., Schütze M. (2013): Escenarios para el futuro - Lima y Callao 2040. Escenarios CIB, storylines & simulacin LiWatool [Zukunftsszenarien für Lima and Callao 2040. CIB Szenarien, Storylines und LiWatool Simulationen, in spanischer Sprache]. Szenariobroschüre des Liwa Projektes (

Schütze M., Seidel J., Chamorro A., León C. (2018): Integrated modelling of a megacity water system – The application of a transdisciplinary approach to the Lima metropolitan area. Journal of Hydrology. DOI:

Kosow H., León C., Zahumensky Y.  (2019): Water conflict and policy analysis: A new methodology to identify conflict free policy-mixes”, GRoW- Mid-term Conference: Global analysis and local solutions for sustainable water resources management, 20-21.02.2019, Frankfurt am Main, PDF

León C., Kosow H. (2019): Wasserknappheit in Megastädten am Beispiel Lima. In: Lozán J.L., Breckle S.-W., Kuttler W., Matzarakis A. (Hrsg.). Warnsignal Klima: Die Städte. 191-196. Universität Hamburg.

León C. D., Brauer F., Hügler M., Keller S., Kosow H., Krauss M., Wasielewski S., Wienhöfer J. (Hrsg.) (2021): Integrated Water Management Solutions in the Lurín Catchment, Lima, Peru – Supporting United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 6. Endbericht des Verbundprojektes TRUST. Universität Stuttgart, ISBN 978-3-00-068498-2 . DOI 10.18419/opus-11390

Motschmann A., Teutsch C., Huggel C., Seidel J., León C.D., Muñoz R., Sienel J., Drenkhan F. (2022): Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 41, 101063. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101063 .

Kosow H., Weimer-Jehle W., León C.D., Minn F. (2022): Designing synergetic and sustainable policy mixes - a methodology to address conflictive environmental issues. Environmental Science & Policy 130, S. 36–46. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.01.007 .

Lead of the Cross-Impact Bilanz Analyse Lab


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